Ethiopia and its security problems- an analysis by RPS

Ethiopia has also suffered suspected al-Shabaab attacks in recent months. There is ongoing disagreement over whether two flammable cylinders recovered from Addis Ababa International’s departure lounge were part of a terrorist plan, and on 13 October 2013 a mistakenly exploded suicide vest killed two Somalis planning to bomb a football match in the capital.

We have asked our intelligence analyst to look into what is happening there and give us his thoughts. Here they are. If you have a subject you would like us to look at in depth, please contact us at [email protected]

Ethiopia’s status as a terrorist target is once again down to membership of the AMISOM mission. As al-Shabaab (AS), with assistance from al-Qaeda, seeks to diversify from Somalia it is probable that Ethiopia may form one of their major areas of attention.

The situation in Ethiopia is however complicated, by the nature of its relationship with Eritrea. The two states frequently fight through border clashes, militancy and proxy battles, and whilst the Eritrean military cannot challenge that of Ethiopian, reports from the Ethiopian National Intelligence & Security Service indicate apparent Eritrean support for al-Shabaab attacks.  If true of course, this would significantly worsen the uneasy truce, which has been in place since 2002, as well as concurrently boosting terrorist capabilities.

Whatever the case, the Terror Alert warning issued across Ethiopia is indicative of the immediacy of the threat, whether it comes with covert state backing or not.

Ethiopia sees regular conflict along her borders, of either smuggling or of a more militant nature, with nationalist ‘liberation’ movements seeking autonomy. They wage a low-level conflict that despite not reaching the severity of the fight against al-Shabaab, has always drawn valuable personnel and resources away from other fights.

As the al-Shabaab threat widens across East Africa, it is necessary not only to reinforce existing counter-measures domestically, but to drastically increase the prominence and level of intelligence-sharing between Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Ethiopia and any other state that may be affected.

Only if security at all levels is strengthened, from the training of guards to inter-agency cooperation to track networks and individuals, can the East African region mount a credible and cohesive defence against what looks set to become an internationalist threat.

 

RPS would like to acknowledge the use of the following for information sourced within this article with thanks:

“Uganda raises security alert to maximum” by Anon, Al-Jazeera, 2013
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2013/10/uganda-raises-security-alert-maximum-2013101941824898865.html

“Westgate attack: How prepared is Uganda’s security system?” by A Bagala, The Sunday Monitor, 2013, http://www.monitor.co.ug/Magazines/ThoughtIdeas/Westgate-attack--How-prepared-is-Uganda-s-security-system-/-/689844/2010590/-/4jwk17/-/index.html

“Suicide bombers die in failed plot at Ethiopia football match” by A Maasho, Reuters, 2013 http://uk.reuters.com/article/2013/10/14/uk-ethiopia-bomb-idUKBRE99D0OL20131014

“Kenya’s Westgate attack: The lessons are both local and global” by M Plaut, The Guardian, 2013 http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/25/kenya-westgate-attack-lessons-global-local

“Ethiopia accuses al-Shabaab, Eritrea of plotting attack” by T Tekle, AllAfrica, 2013 http://allafrica.com/stories/201311070392.html

 

Photo: ethiopianembassy.eu