What next for al-Shabaab in Kenya?
What next for al-Shabaab? RPS Partnership's intelligence analyst gives us his views on where Al Shabaab is going post the Kenya Westgate Mall terror attack.
The Westgate Mall attack ‘announced’ al-Shabaab to the wider world. They had attacked abroad before – two bombs in bars in Kampala, Uganda, timed to explode at the broadcast of the World Cup Final, thus ensuring as many casualties as possible, but those attacks did not catch the public consciousness in the manner of the Nairobi siege. Perhaps this is a consequence of method.
It is relatively easy to build a bomb and leave it in a public place – it is much harder, even in Africa, to organise a fifteen-man strike force and assume complete control over a building.
We can draw two immediate conclusions from the attack. Firstly, it indicates that al-Shabaab is a credible, highly dangerous threat outside of their own heartland. Despite the group’s public assertions that they would target Kenya for the its presence in the African Union mission that fights Shabaab in Somalia, there were perhaps few outside the security and intelligence services who really believed they could achieve it. Such belief has proved to be naïve.
Secondly, the attack reaffirms that the power shift inside al-Shabaab has taken the course that analysts have most feared. After the ascension to power of Ali Godane in 2012, the organisation was split, with the reason being Godane’s stated desire to increase the group’s attack capability outside of Somalia. This would be done by formalisation of an alliance with al-Qaeda – never possible under Osama Bin Laden but approved by the new commander al-Zawahiri in early 2012.
What the Westgate Mall attack therefore represents is a ‘calling card’ on behalf of al-Shabaab and their new al-Qaeda allies. Their new capability is strong and that this is what is to be expected from al-Shabaab from now on. Such a conclusion does not inspire positivity, but reflects the harsh reality.
The big question is: could this happen again?
After al-Qaeda’s 9/11 spectacular, although the group remained active and occasionally achieved a major success, for example 7/7, they were never as successful again and arguably have been on the back foot ever since.
With al-Shabaab, we can expect an increase in AU troops entering Somalia to eradicate the Youth in their homeland, and it is certain that security measures across all of Kenya will be increased, especially at Western-frequented and high-value targets such as airports.
Such measures will not be enough to definitively stop all future al-Shabaab attacks, although the group will now be aware that all efforts against them will now be doubled with the aid of the international community. As Islamists are emboldened by what they see as the martyrdom of their brothers, so too must the domestic and international security communities increase their vigilance, protective measures and intelligence-sharing to prevent the next attack that is certainly already being planned. The immediate future of Kenya is thus in a climate of both fear and uncertainty. Fear that something like this was able to occur, and uncertainty over whether the next attack is just around the corner.
It will be difficult for al-Shabaab to strike again. But crucially, it is not impossible. President Kenyatta described his country as being locked in a ‘moral war’, yet if Kenya does not act proactively in stemming the tide of militant Islam then it may very well find itself in a physical one as well.
Photo: African Arguments