Ukraine - RPS intelligence analyst looks at the region
"What is going on in the Ukraine?" asks RPS's intelligence analyst. Here is the reply.
"The apparent victory of ‘chocolate tycoon’ Petro Poroshenko in the Ukrainian presidential election on 25-05-2014 is just the latest instalment of the Ukrainian crisis. And ‘crisis’ is certainly the appropriate word: more than a civil protest but not quite a civil war, with the state seemingly being pulled apart at the centre, all that can be said with certainty right now about Ukraine is that it is, in the bluntest terms, a mess.
The crisis began in November 2013 when thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets to demand political reform and closer ties with the European Union, in the face of perceived Russian economic expansionism – and most importantly, after Ukrainian President Yanukovych’s refusal to sign a closer-ties trade deal with the EU. Close to one million protestors camped in Independence Square. The government passed strict anti-protest laws and began to employ deadly force in clashes between police and protestors. In late February, the tension boiled over when 88 demonstrators were killed in the space of 48 hours. Protestors took to the streets en masse to capture government buildings; President Yanukovych fled, and Parliament promised fresh elections. The crisis seemed to be resolving....
…and then Russia annexed the Crimea.
There is a clear delineating line in Ukraine between the West and East. Generally speaking, those in the West speak Ukrainian and favour closer ties with the EU. Those in the East speak Russian and favour allegiance with Moscow. It is this second group that Putin emboldened through sending troops into Crimea – ethnic Russians who considered ‘the Ukraine’ a construct of détente and never a true country. In the minds of eastern Ukrainians, they are Russian and the taking of the Crimea (and subsequent 90% voting in favour to join Russia) is not a violation of international law but long-awaited restitution.
There will be questions about Putin’s timing of the annexation. Was it a direct response to the fall of Yanukovych – a key Putin ally? Was it something long in the planning? The Ukrainian crisis had been in the open since November 2013 and the issue of Crimea as ‘Russian’ arguably extant since 1991. It is notable that Putin waited at least until after the Sochi Winter Olympics, his moment in the sun, to make a move.
Thus far, little action has been taken against Russia. Sanctions have been enacted against ‘The Eleven’ – eleven key members of Putin’s inner circle of power – and over thirty others, including asset freezes and visa bans, but this is unlikely to deter Russia from her grand geopolitical ambitions. The US, EU and NATO all continue to insist that Crimea remains Ukrainian and that they do not recognise the referendum (which is also their position on the referendum in the eastern city of Donetsk) but, short of sending in their own troops, there is little that they can otherwise do. Putin has shown himself the man willing to take the big risks and call the bluff of the West – for instance when Russia went to war with Georgia in 2008 – so perhaps his invasion of the Crimea should not have come as a surprise.
This runs counter to the argument that in the age of ever-closer ties between nations, to blatantly invite provocation is a fool’s game. But we must remember that Russia – in her incarnations as the Tsarist empire, the Soviet Union and now the Federation – has never played by the rules of the West. She has always been the outsider, one of the few international actors who cannot be viewed with the same rationality as the West. And Putin is the man who described the dismantling of the Soviet Union as “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the twentieth century”. Given this, it would be more surprising if he had not eventually made a move to reassert Russian authority over her territorial neighbours.
And so the crisis continues. The situation inside Eastern Ukraine remains highly volatile, with separatists and loyalists clashing over disputed territory on a daily basis. Matters are not helped by the alleged involvement of crack Russian GRU teams (the equivalent of Special Forces) – there to further ‘stir up’ trouble and provide anything from assistance to separatists to, potentially, the groundwork for a full-scale Russian invasion of Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk.
Putin has promised that he will not split the Ukraine any further – although his words must surely be taken with some ulterior motive in mind. There even exists the option of a ‘velvet divorce’ similar to that which split the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993 – a freely-voted referendum that saw no ill will. Whether it is in Ukraine’s best interests – either economically or morally – to let the south and east depart is another question entirely, but the violence so far has not brought any solution.
Whatever happens to the Crimea, Donetsk and every other flashpoint, and regardless of the outcome of any referendum or election, Ukraine looks set to be the latest battleground in the reignited struggle between East and West."
Whoever said the Cold War was over, anyway?
Contact [email protected] if you require information on travel to the Ukraine.
Photo: RPS
RPS would like to acknowledge the use of the following for information sourced within this article with thanks:
“Ukraine rebels defy Russia's call to delay secessionist referendum” by H Salem, The Guardian, 2014
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/08/ukraine-rebels-defy-russias-call-delay-secessionist-referendum
“Russia says EU sanctions will hurt peace efforts” by S Gutterman, Reuters, 2014
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/13/us-ukraine-crisis-russia-ministry-idUSBREA4C09H20140513
“Flights halted at Donetsk airport” by Anon, BBC, 2014
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27573622
“Ukraine crisis timeline” by Anon, BBC, 2014
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-26248275
“Ukraine: the next possible flashpoints” by D Blair, The Telegraph, 2014
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10721463/Ukraine-the-next-possible-flashpoints.html
“Divorce, Ukrainian-style” by J Keating, Slate, 2014 http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/27/divorce_ukrainian_style_would_ukraine_be_better_ off_splitting.html
“Putin laughs off Western sanctions” by Anon, Haaretz, 2014 http://www.haaretz.com/news/world/1.581148
“Putin reclaims Russia for Crimea”, S Meyers/E Barry, New York Times, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/19/world/europe/ukraine.html?_r=0