Nigeria advancing against Boko Haram

Stratfor Global Intelligence has produced this interesting look at Boko Haram and RPS wanted to share these thoughts with you. 

Summary

Advances are being made against Boko Haram, a fact made evident by the Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan's last-minute bid to influence the Presidential elections, which are scheduled for the 28th March, by drawing media attention to Nigeria’s recent military victories.

On the 26th February, the President visited the liberated town of Baga among several other locations in the northeast of the country. The lack of success against Boko Haram has been a constant source of criticism against Jonathan, but regardless of the impact of this measured military success, the offensive will not prevent Boko Haram from conducting its insurgency and terrorist attacks, which have intensified during the fighting. However, the offensive could affect the election outcomes, with the government clearly aiming to go into elections on the ticket of beating back Boko Haram.

Analysis

After several failed attempts to regain control over portions of north-eastern states from Boko Haram, the Nigerian military has over the past two weeks finally has started to achieve results. Last week, Nigerian forces initiated military operations north of Maiduguri and north of Mubi. They first liberated towns along the main road to Baga, up to Monguno, and then during the weekend, they captured Baga, where Boko Haram had taken control of a Nigerian military outpost and had massacred the local population. This offensive push is the first major success since minor operations in Northern Adamawa state last year.

However, the operations have recovered only some of Boko Haram’s terrain. So far, the operation has pushed Boko Haram forces out of population centres in a substantial portion of Northern Borno state, which has been the most recent area of expansion by the Islamist militant group. The group still controls a large part of Borno state along the mountainous Cameroonian border, its core. It also controls areas of Sambisa Forest and parts of Southern Yobe state.

Still, these areas are likely to be next for Nigerian military operations, because air strikes already have been launched against Boko Haram positions around Gwoza and Bama, near Cameroon's border.

Successful military operations north of Maiduguri could defeat Boko Haram's attempt to establish territorial control, and so to carve out its own caliphate if they extended into this core. This is similar to the 2013 military offensive that defeated Boko Haram attempts to set up territorial control in 2013. However, since August 2014, the group has been able to expand its control over localities consistently within the north-eastern states while withstanding Nigeria’s disastrous offensives as they attempted to liberate areas and defend military positions.

New support

The Nigerian military's current success stands in stark contrast with earlier efforts mostly because of new support. First and foremost, forces from Chad, Niger and Cameroon have assisted the Nigerian offensive on their respective sides of the border. The countries have increased efforts to close their borders to Boko Haram movement and Chad has even deployed forces to support Niger and Cameroon. This activity has increased the operational effectiveness inside Nigeria and has prevented the Boko Haram fighters from re-locating to new sanctuaries. Niger has tried to cut Boko Haram off from its financial resources, reportedly bombing two separate convoys of Nigerien traders who were carrying smoked fish into Nigeria, where Boko Haram hen taxes these traders, or seizes their goods. Chadian troops have led some incursions into Nigeria, but always in proximity to the border.

Assistance goes beyond Nigeria's immediate neighbours. The French military, which has a heavy presence in all three countries, also actively has supported the effort with intelligence personnel and surveillance flights. The US and other foreign intelligence operators have been present and have supported these countries in some capacity in this part of West Africa as well, especially since the operations in nearby Mali.

Secondly, the Nigerian military has seen marked improvement in logistics and support. New equipment, such as the purchase of a substantial number of armoured vehicles, attack helicopters and even Chinese armed drones, moved into the north-eastern theatre over the past weeks, increasing the capabilities of the Nigerian forces. Along with renewed air strikes against Boko Haram, these developments notably have helped the success of Nigeria's operations.

Considerable risks

If the Nigerian military sustains these operations, another transition in Boko Haram tactics could be expected. If more conventional methods of fighting become infeasible because of successful military counteraction and the attrition of combat power, then Boko Haram is likely to re-focus its resources on insurgency or terrorism again. The group continues to use suicide bombings as a tactic, escalating the frequency of suicide bombings in Northern Nigeria over the past few days and if conventional territorial control goes beyond their reach, then Boko Haram militants could prioritise vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) attacks, or may expand attacks farther south again.

Finally, Nigeria's military successes will boost support somewhat for Jonathan as he heads into the Presidential election. Military leaders have supported a delay to the election, which was originally scheduled for the 14th February in order to prepare for the operations because they said that they would take military resources away from election security. The decision was likely a deliberate political calculation by the Nigerian government given the severe criticism it had received from the opposition party. Jonathan and his military commanders also tried to capitalise by making a media spectacle out of their visit to the battlespace.

Regardless of the outcome of the operations, and those likely to take place over the next month, Boko Haram attacks will pose considerable risk to the elections taking place in north-eastern Nigeria, and potentially other areas of the country.

With thanks to www.strafor.com