Ukraine / Russia: Tensions escalate over alleged Ukrainian incursions into Crimea

Posted: 10/08/2016

10 August 2016 - RPS Partnership

News from Ukraine is worrying, according to PGI risk assessments. RPS Partnership warns of the tensions and how it may affect travellers in the region and those planning to go there. Contact us for more information on travel to the region as well as travel awareness training. Please contact us on [email protected] 

Russian officials claim to have thwarted two attempts by Ukrainian forces to carry out sabotage attacks against critical infrastructure in Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014. Armed clashes reportedly took place on the Crimean border on the evening of 6 August and on 8 August, though Kiev has denied the reports.

Moscow’s claims come amid a reported build-up of Russian forces in northern Crimea, as well as along the western Russian border with Ukraine, which Ukrainian officials have warned may precipitate an impending offensive.

If such an offensive were to take place from the direction of Crimea, into the adjacent Ukrainian region of Kherson, it would represent a significant broadening of the separatist conflict, which has hitherto been confined to the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

The separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine has escalated in recent weeks and the UN has warned of a rapid escalation of civilian casualties, illustrating the ongoing weakness of the Minsk accords reached in September 2014 and February 2015.

A Russian-backed offensive may not be forthcoming but the tensions resulting from the Russian allegations will further aggravate bilateral tensions and could result in a further escalation of the violence along the borders with the self-proclaimed republics of Luhansk and Donetsk. Such an outcome could see border defences strengthened and subsequently reinforce separatists regions’ status as breakaway republics under unofficial Russian authority.

Contact us on [email protected] for more information on travel awareness and crisis management training.

Photos: RPS Partnership Ukraine

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