Sochi a look back and a look forward - by RPS's intelligence analayst
RPS's intelligence analyst looks at the threats facing the Winter Olympics in Sochi in the next few weeks. What does the future hold for the region and why?
He has examined various sources and now writes this about Sochi:
The twin suicide bombs in the Russian town of Volgograd on 29-30 December 2013 are credited with ‘reminding’ the international community of the terrorism threat posed to the forthcoming Winter Olympics. Yet if truth be told, such a reminder is at least five years out of date. Undoubtedly the deaths of 34 civilians so close to the commencement of the Games is a major security concern, but it is nothing new.
Russian terrorism was at its highest ever level back in 2009, with almost 800 separate attacks in the Caucasus; and in 2012, the last full year for which statistics are available, 659 people died in 182 separate attacks across Russia – the vast majority in the North Caucasus. In the intervening years, targets as high-profile as the Moscow subway system and Domodedovo Airport were also attacked. What the Volgograd bombings signified then was not the arrival of a new threat, but reaffirmation of an extant and extremely dangerous cause.
Russia’s Islamist insurgency arose following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. The breakaway province of Chechnya, almost entirely Muslim, seized their opportunity and declared independence. There followed two separate wars with Russia, during which Chechen separatists were blamed for the Beslan school massacre and the Dubrovka Theatre siege in addition to numerous urban suicide bombings. Russia’s then-new President, Vladimir Putin, encapsulated Russia’s take-no-prisoners attitude to the insurgency when he memorably claimed his forces would ‘shoot them [terrorists] in the outhouses’. Strong words, but in 2009 Russian forces began to withdraw. The pro-Moscow position of new Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov is likely to have played as large a factor as the Kremlin’s claim of military victory.
The end of the war though did not mean an end to the insurgency. While Chechnya still hosted isolated violence, North Caucasus-based terrorism saw a shift to Dagestan, at Russia’s southwest edge, on the shores of the Caspian Sea. This is largely down to Doku Umarov, leader of the Caucasus Emirate terror group and currently Russia’s most-wanted man. Umarov has stated his desire to build an Islamist, sharia state in the Caucasus region by any means possible and does not recognise the Kremlin as a legitimate authority.
The Russian government believe that he is responsible for the Moscow subway and airport bombings mentioned above, as well as suicide attacks against the Chechen Interior Ministry and a Nevsky Express train in 2009. Umarov has made no secret of his desire to damage the Olympics, arguably Russia’s biggest generator of international business and prestige thus far. In a July 2013 video statement he promised “maximum force to disrupt the games… using any methods allowed us by Allah”.
How does this affect Sochi?
Clearly any major event held in a country frequented by terrorists will become a target, but Sochi has the disadvantage of relatively close proximity to the Islamists’ North Caucasus heartland compared to Moscow and St. Petersburg. Sochi is Russia’s largest resort town, and with Formula One racing and World Cup football set to arrive in the next five years it is intended to form a large part of Russia’s economic future, making any successful incident a major embarrassment to Russian authorities. Whilst not going so far as to dismiss any targets as ‘easy’, it is arguable that a terrorist attack is more likely to succeed in the North Caucasus region, where terror networks are embedded and governmental control is looser, than in the high-pressure surroundings of Moscow.
The December attacks in Volgograd were not the first in the city and are unlikely to be the last. Volgograd is a major transit point on the rail route from Russia to Sochi, as well as the gateway to the North Caucasus region in general. Given Umarov’s proclamation to defend what he terms as the entirety of “our [Islamist] lands”, Volgograd is an ideal place to prove to Russian authorities that the zone cannot be adequately defended. Additionally, on 8th January of this year, five bodies and an explosive device were discovered in Stavropol, a central city in the region between Sochi and Volgograd. They have not yet been identified but it seems likely that the device is in some way connected to the Caucasus Emirate or affiliated jihadist group.
In Sochi itself, is the probability of an attack arguably lessened?
The Head of the Olympic Committee has claimed that ‘every possible measure’ is in place to protect against a terrorist strike. Over 40,000 troops have been deployed (double the total number of London 2012 security), all vehicles will be closely monitored, every single visitor subjected to stringent security checks, monitoring of email and phone conversations, and mass crackdowns on suspected militants took place after the Volgograd bombings.
Further to this, a 1,500 square mile ‘security zone’ has been established around Sochi, extending right to the border of the breakaway Abkhazia province, with drones, submarines and Special Forces on constant overwatch. Those wishing to pass through these zonal checkpoints into Sochi’s Olympic and travel facilities must produce both a ticket and ‘spectator pass’, acquirable only by submitting details to the Organising Committee and government.
What would be a target?
Yet as Volgograd proved, perfection of prevention is impossible. And if an attack comes it is most likely to be in the Volgograd manner: perpetrated by a lone suicide bomber, in a public place, somewhere not as well protected as Sochi but still vital to the smooth running of the tourist flow to the Games. ‘Open targets’ such as the Olympic Mountain Cluster and transportation hubs are assessed as viable targets. Terrorists are all too aware of the damage a photograph of a blown-up bus can do to tourism and business interests. While chance would be a fine thing, they may not be interested in assaulting the highest-value infrastructure in Sochi, simply because they do not need to.
As of 23 January 2014, the Olympic Committees of Germany, Hungary, Slovenia and Italy had all received letters threatening attacks against their delegations. The provenance of these letters is not yet known but despite the IOC appearing to dismiss their threats, such possibilities cannot be discounted.
Getting there?
Travelling to and from Sochi, it is easiest to take either a flight or a train southwards from Moscow, which remains Russia’s international transit hub. A new terminal was built at Adler International specifically for the Olympics and the airport can now serve two million passengers per year, while the rail journey takes approximately 24 hours.
In case of emergency, air travel is the recommended route out of Sochi. It is not recommended to drive through the Krasnodar province due to the proximity of Dagestan and the presence of Islamists, and driving south to cross the Georgian border is likewise not recommended.
Putin has updated his decade-old claim of ‘annihilating’ the terrorists and staked much of his personal reputation on the safe conclusion of the Sochi Olympics. The next month may be critical for both.
RPS would like to acknowledge the use of the following for information sourced within this article with thanks:
“Bombings in Russia’s Volgograd” by Saeed Ahmed and Diana Magnay, CNN, 2013
http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/30/world/europe/russia-terrorist-attacks-explainer/?hpt=wo_c2
“Russia is losing against radical Islam” by Ilan Berman, USA Today, 2013
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2014/01/08/russia-suicide-bombings-sochi-olympics-column/4345829/
“Russia ends Chechnya operation” by Richard Galpin, BBC News, 2009
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/8001495.stm
“US cautions Sochi travellers amid threats” by Natalya Krainova, The Moscow Times, 2014
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/olympic_coverage/article/us-cautions-sochi-travelers-amid-threats/492574.html
“Is it possible to protect Putin’s perfect Olympics?” by Jim Maceda, NBC News, 2014
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/01/04/22165226-is-it-possible-to-protect-putins-perfect-olympics?lite
“Winter Olympics: Russia launches security crackdown” by Steven Rosenberg, BBC News, 2014
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-25633632
“Russia on alert ahead of Olympics after 5 bodies, bomb found” by Tatiana Ustinova and Alessandra Prentice, NBC News, 2014
http://worldnews.nbcnews.com/_news/2014/01/09/22239065-russia-on-alert-ahead-of-olympics-after-5-bodies-bomb-found?lite
“Olympic committees receive Sochi threats” by Anon, Al-Jazeera, 2014
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2014/01/olympic-committees-receive-sochi-threats-2014122122738352162.html
Photo: coutesey of: Heather Harvey, CA